A couple of posts previously I tried to ballpark the costs of the entire Green New Deal.
I wrote, ” The (rough) annual cost estimates of implementing the Green New Deal to range from $2.65 trillion to $5.88 trillion. Almost all of the variance is due to the differences in estimates for healthcare.”
Today I would like to split out the costs, showing what the annual costs are for the environmental portion vs. the economic part. I’ll do it with the high end estimate of $5.88 trillion.
Medicare for All: $3.2 trillion
Affordable, safe, and adequate housing (solving homelessness): $9.3 billion
Upgrading schools and public housing: $6.8 billion
Economic security (universal basic income to those earning less than $61K/year): $768 billion
Providing resources, training, and high-quality education, including higher education, to all people of the United States: $32.5 billion
Total annual spend on non-environmental aspects of Green New Deal, high range estimates: $4.016 trillion.
68% of the annual cost of the Green New Deal is non-environmental.
The previous post was really, really tough and really, really long. This one is much shorter and much easier!
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Since Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ed Markey introduced
their resolution for a Green New Deal, a number of people and institutions have
tried to put a price tag on it.
The prices they come up with seem to reflect their political
orientation more than an objective evaluation of the costs, with conservatives
who would naturally oppose the Green New Deal saying it would cost a lot, while
progressive Democrats who favor some or all of the elements of a Green New Deal
insisting it would not cost very much at all. Before we provide our own
estimates, here are some of the costs put forward by others.
Let’s start at the high end. Mises Wire, named in honor of
the Austrian School economist Ludwig von Mises, says it would cost $93 trillion—and
they say that their estimate is conservative. The estimate relies on other work
done by the American Action Forum (whose founder actually estimates a range
from $52 trillion to $93 trillion)
and does not analyze the whole of the Green New Deal in great detail—from the
article accompanying the estimate it would seem they threw up their hands in
despair after arriving at such a high figure. They do note that some elements
of the Green New Deal are redundant—for example, if the energy grid is powered
by 100% renewable sources, why does the Green New Deal call for improving the
energy efficiency of every building in America? That’s potentially helpful
criticism. But in other places, they estimate a range of costs for elements of
the Green New Deal and present the highest end of the range for each.
Defenders of the Green New Deal have been much fuzzier about
costs, with Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez merely remarking that it would probably
cost at least $10 trillion,
with other vague estimates from various sources at ‘around $2 trillion.’
Somewhere in between lies the real number—or numbers, as many elements must be estimated within a range.
Continue reading “Rough Look at Overall Costs of the Green New Deal”